If you’ve watched the news in the past few weeks, you have seen a lot of hype. We have seen people call current approaches to COVID-19 “fascist” (even though they are brilliant at making cars and rockets). We have seen real estate developers tout using unproven drugs, getting sunlight “inside the body” and using caustic chemicals to “disinfect” the body.
We have been fortunate in Utah that our leaders have actually be quite thoughtful in their approach to the pandemic – making decisions based on actual data and in consultation with medical professionals.
Here is a graph with actual data showing what our experience has been so far. With disease, there is a factor represented by R which talks about how many people an infected person in turn gets infected. With an R>1, disease can grow exponentially. The higher the R, the faster it grows. With an R<1, the disease will end up “burning out”.
Here in Utah, in the middle of March, our R was around 3. For comparison, the estimated R value of the 1918 flu pandemic was between 1.4-2.8. On March 16th, schools closed. This brought down the R value, but it was still above 1. On March 27th, there were further directives. This brought the R value below 1. As you can see on the graph, we have had an R value below 1 for more than 2 weeks. That is why the restrictions are being lifted and businesses are starting to open carefully.
A few notes:
- It appears that in Utah, at least, any change in policy takes about 9 days to affect the transmission rate of the disease. It’s not immediate.
- The important data will be in the middle of May. If this graph stays below 1 with the easing of the restrictions, then I suspect they will ease things a bit more.
- Utah’s response, unlike what is hyped on TV, is very measured and data driven.
- All of the policies have actually worked and have protected Utahns – despite being called fascist or a bunch of other things by people who are, quite honestly, driven by ratings more than science.
So – hang in there. Stay safe. Follow all of the guidelines. They are working.